Abstract Title: Drought Affects Mangrove Recovery Patterns Following Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Submitted to: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

Abstract Text:

Mangroves protect coastal communities by safeguarding against natural disasters, a predominant cause of mangrove loss in the Caribbean. As droughts and storms increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change, these ecosystems become more vulnerable. Identifying over one million hectares of mangroves and revealing over 80,000 hectares of dieback, we used satellite imagery to quantify Caribbean mangrove extent and damage in 2017. Benchmarked against historical records, 2017 had unparalleled levels of damage coincident with record levels of drought and storm compounding. Pixel-based time series analyses distinguished drought from storm damage, revealing nearly 7% of hurricane path damage occurred prior to Irma’s landfall. This initial drought driven damage was structurally distinct from storm damage, which affected mangroves on average 2.7 meters taller, and caused more severe damage evidenced through reduction in immediate and annually composited NDVI. We found drought reduces mangrove resilience to storms by decreasing recovery rates. Our results illustrate the heterogenous damage of different disturbances, and compromised mangrove resilience with hydrological stress. The protective nature of mangroves becomes more valuable as climate change increases hurricane and drought activity. Targeting ecological management plans to areas of vulnerable, drought-stressed mangroves forests can safeguard mangrove resiliency and protect them for future generations.

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