Abstract Title: Developing Fragility Curves Towards Assessing Flood Risk in Ohkay Owingeh

Abstract Submitted to: NATURAL HAZARDS

Abstract Text:

Floods, wildfires, and post-wildfire floods have devastated Native American communities in New Mexico for the past 20 years, leading to loss of life, damage to infrastructure, and negative economic impacts. Ohkay Owingeh Pueblo experienced 3 major flood events from 1998 to 2016 and has the potential to experience wildfires and post-wildfire flooding in the future. To address the need for flood resilience in this community, we developed new fragility curves to model the vulnerability of residential buildings in Ohkay Owingeh to flood impacts. To construct fragility curves that are specific to Ohkay Owingeh, we first identify relevant fragility curves from literature based on building and construction type. Then, members of the Pueblo shared their lived experiences with flooding and the associated consequences through an expert elicitation survey. The final fragility curve is constructed via a Bayesian update of the literature values with the new expert elicitation data. By using this method, we can ensure that the resulting fragility curves are specific to the community’s needs and reflect the depth of generational knowledge available. These curves contribute to building community resilience in Ohkay Owingeh by informing the use of flood defense strategies such as an early warning system. The information from the fragility curves and expert elicitation surveys will be combined with hydrologic flood models and real time data to create an early warning system that will notify residents before a flood to either prepare for the flood or evacuate. Additionally, this information informs the implementation of long-term flood mitigation strategies in the form of cost-effective infrastructure planning. This study fills a gap in existing building and infrastructure fragility research by focusing on flood consequences in desert and inland landscapes and Native American communities.

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